The Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) PLC has set an audacious target: to surge annual cargo volumes from the current 45.45 million metric tonnes to 168 million metric tonnes by 2045. Meeting this nearly fourfold increase will require more than incremental upgrades. It demands a fundamental expansion of the ports of Mombasa and Lamu, smarter financing models, and a deliberate strengthening of the hinterland networks that turn port capacity into tangible trade.
Speaking at the Port Management Association of Eastern and Southern Africa (PMAESA) Ports and Maritime Investment Forum and Exhibition 2026 in Dar es Salaam, KPA’s Manager for Corporate Planning and Strategy, Mohammed Golicha, outlined the Authority’s investment priorities on behalf of CEO Capt. William Ruto. The plans centre on redeveloping existing conventional and multipurpose cargo berths, constructing additional container terminal berths at Mombasa, and building new berths at Lamu. These projects are designed not only to raise handling capacity but to improve operational efficiency and reinforce Kenya’s role as the primary maritime gateway for a large swathe of Eastern Africa, particularly through the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor.
The numbers are striking, yet the strategic logic is sound. Mombasa remains the region’s busiest port and the natural outlet for Uganda, Rwanda, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and parts of Ethiopia. Lamu, still in its early operational phase, offers the chance to create a second deep-water gateway that can relieve pressure on Mombasa while opening new routes into northern Kenya and the wider LAPSSET catchment. Without substantial new berth capacity and modernised handling systems, congestion, dwell times, and logistics costs will rise precisely when regional demand is accelerating.
Financing this scale of work cannot rest on the public purse alone. KPA has correctly identified Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) as a central mechanism for mobilising private capital, technical expertise, and operational innovation. While government budget allocations, retained earnings, and commercial borrowing will continue to play roles, the critical variables for success are bankable project pipelines, transparent procurement, balanced risk allocation, and a predictable regulatory environment. Investors will not commit patient capital to ports if tariffs remain subject to sudden political revision, if dispute resolution is slow, or if competing state entities introduce uncertainty. Kenya’s recent experience with PPP frameworks offers a foundation; the test will be consistent application at the scale now required.
Infrastructure at the waterfront is only half the equation. Increased quay capacity is meaningless if cargo cannot move efficiently inland. KPA’s emphasis on complementary investments in roads, the Standard Gauge Railway, pipelines, inland container depots, and digital systems is therefore essential. Bottlenecks on the Northern Corridor or incomplete last-mile connectivity would simply transfer congestion from the port to the hinterland, eroding the competitive advantage Kenya seeks to protect. Digital transformation—real-time cargo tracking, paperless clearance, and predictive analytics for berth allocation—can deliver significant efficiency gains at a relatively lower capital cost and should be pursued with the same urgency as physical expansion.
These national priorities sit within a broader regional conversation. PMAESA Chairperson Mohammed Abdool used the same forum to stress that ports cannot realise their potential in isolation. Strong governance, financial accountability, commercially viable projects, and transparent decision-making remain non-negotiable. Digitalisation, green operations, and operational efficiency are no longer optional extras; they are the minimum requirements for ports that wish to remain competitive and resilient. Abdool’s call for closer collaboration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is particularly timely. AfCFTA’s promise of expanded intra-African trade will only materialise if maritime gateways are effectively linked to inland markets and if land-linked countries can access efficient, predictable corridors. Ports that treat neighbouring economies as partners rather than mere transit customers will capture more of the value created by regional integration.
The risks are real. Over-ambitious timelines, cost overruns, or a failure to sequence hinterland investments with berth construction could leave Kenya with expensive, under-utilised assets. Environmental and social safeguards around Lamu and the expansion of Mombasa must be rigorously applied if projects are to retain legitimacy. Competition from other East African ports will intensify; Tanzania’s own expansion plans and the potential of alternative corridors mean Kenya cannot afford complacency on service quality, reliability, or cost.
Yet the opportunity is larger still. A well-executed expansion programme would cement Kenya’s position as the region’s premier trade gateway, generate substantial employment and logistics value, and position the country to benefit disproportionately from AfCFTA-driven trade growth. Success will depend less on the volume of capital raised than on the quality of institutions, the clarity of risk-sharing arrangements, and the consistency with which policy supports efficient, competitive operations.
The PMAESA forum’s theme—“Unlocking Sustainable Port and Maritime Investment for Regional Integration”—captures the moment accurately. Kenya has articulated a clear ambition and a coherent set of priorities. Converting that ambition into berths, systems, and seamless corridors will require sustained political commitment, disciplined project preparation, and genuine partnership with private investors and regional counterparts. The cargo will come. The question is whether the infrastructure and the institutions will be ready for it.