Africa’s Shipping Surge Is Real — But Connectivity Alone Will Not Deliver Value

UNCTAD’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) and Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index track scheduled services, carriers, deployed capacity, vessel size and direct connections. Africa’s regional average rose fastest in the mid-2020s. Specific countries stood out: Cameroon posted a 54 percent jump, driven by the Port of Kribi’s leap in maximum vessel size from under 9,000 TEU to more than 24,000 TEU, with corresponding capacity growth. Mauritania and Namibia each recorded gains of about 43 percent. Ports such as Lamu in Kenya and Agadir in Morocco posted sharp year-on-year increases in the port-level index, while established hubs like Tanger Med continued to lead African rankings.

Much of this improvement is structural and cyclical at once. Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions since late 2023 forced substantial rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. That longer voyage pattern increased the strategic weight of southern and eastern African ports and raised deployed capacity into Sub-Saharan services. Major carriers expanded offerings; some newer or smaller operators grew capacity even faster in percentage terms. Port modernisation projects, new deep-water terminals and selective private investment also played a role. The result is measurable: more ships, bigger ships and denser schedules calling African ports.

Yet the same UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025 that documents this growth also paints a cautious global picture. Seaborne trade expanded 2.2 percent in 2024 but was projected at only 0.5 percent in 2025 amid geopolitical friction, policy uncertainty and softer demand. Freight rates remained volatile. Connectivity gains achieved under abnormal routing conditions are not automatically permanent. When — or if — Suez traffic normalises, some of the incremental African calls could soften unless underlying demand and competitiveness have strengthened.

Karigithu’s core argument is the right one: the opportunity for Africa lies less in counting more vessel arrivals than in strengthening port infrastructure, expanding maritime services, developing local industries and building the regional connections that allow the continent to capture more value from shipping. Connectivity is a necessary but insufficient condition.

African ports still face well-documented constraints. Turnaround times, hinterland connectivity, customs efficiency and last-mile logistics often lag peers. Many economies remain heavily oriented toward exporting raw or lightly processed commodities while importing finished goods. Without complementary investments in manufacturing, agro-processing, logistics parks, ship repair, bunkering and maritime professional services, higher connectivity risks reinforcing a pattern of transit rather than transformation. The continent’s critical-minerals trade offers a concrete opportunity: rising volumes create demand for specialised logistics, storage and processing capacity that could be located closer to source.

Regional integration is equally critical. Seamless movement of goods across African borders — via corridor agreements, standardised procedures and reliable inland transport — multiplies the value of any single port’s international links. Fragmented markets limit scale and discourage the dense feeder networks that turn gateway ports into true hubs.

Karigithu pointed to cooperation with India on port development, technology, skills and maritime partnerships. The timing is favourable. India has dramatically expanded its own port capacity, reduced vessel turnaround times and become a major supplier of seafarers. Its Sagarmala programme, Maritime Amrit Kaal vision, and growing shipbuilding and green-shipping ambitions give it practical experience that many African partners seek. Platforms such as Sagarmanthan itself — co-hosted by India’s Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways and the Observer Research Foundation — bring African, Indian and other Global South voices into structured conversation about trade, technology, security and the blue economy.

Concrete avenues exist. Joint port and terminal projects, technology transfer in digital port systems and single-window platforms, seafarer training and certification programmes, ship-repair and green-fuel bunkering facilities, and coordinated approaches to maritime domain awareness and security all align interests. India’s security outreach in the western Indian Ocean and African partners’ desire for diversified partners create overlapping space. Commercial logistics platforms linking Indian and African ports and economic zones can further reduce friction in bilateral trade.

Such cooperation works best when it is demand-driven, transparent and capacity-building rather than purely extractive. African governments and private actors must set clear priorities — specific corridors, specific skills gaps, specific industrial clusters — so that partnerships deliver measurable local content and employment.

Several risks could blunt the current momentum. First, connectivity gains driven by temporary rerouting may reverse if Red Sea conditions improve without corresponding African demand growth. Second, debt sustainability and project selection matter: large port expansions that outpace cargo or fail to integrate hinterland logistics can become fiscal burdens. Third, skills shortages in stevedoring, pilotage, vessel traffic management, maritime law and green technologies remain binding constraints in many countries. Fourth, climate and environmental pressures — rising seas, extreme weather and the global push for shipping decarbonisation — will require adaptive infrastructure and new fuel strategies that many African ports are only beginning to plan for.

The constructive agenda is therefore clear. Treat the UNCTAD connectivity numbers as a platform, not an end point. Accelerate investments that raise the efficiency and reliability of existing assets while selectively expanding capacity where demand is proven. Prioritise hinterland and regional connectivity as aggressively as deep-water berths. Expand maritime education and training pipelines, including for women and youth. Pursue targeted international partnerships — India among them — that transfer technology, finance bankable projects and build institutional capacity. Align blue-economy strategies so that shipping growth supports fisheries, coastal tourism, renewable energy and marine conservation rather than undermining them.

Africa’s fastest regional growth in liner connectivity is a genuine achievement and a genuine opportunity. Whether it becomes a lasting shift in the continent’s place in global maritime trade depends on deliberate choices made now — about infrastructure quality, industrial policy, skills, regional integration and the partnerships that turn traffic into transformation. The discussion at Sagarmanthan 2026 correctly framed the stakes. The work of converting numbers into durable value remains ahead.